New York Knicks fans should start learning about these power forwards with the 2022 NBA Draft around the corner.
Let’s flashback to the 2020 NBA draft. The new regime of the New York Knicks (Leon Rose and company) selected Obi Toppin with the eighth overall pick in their first year of operations. Toppin was seen as the future, but Julius Randle decided to have an All-NBA campaign and lead the orange and blue to the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons. A year later, fans want Randle out of New York, and Toppin remains everyone’s favorite bench player.
So the Knicks don’t need a power forward since the position is backlogged, but New York can’t afford to pass up on top-tier talent. The top of the draft features “fours,” which are bigs that are athletic phenoms, knock-down shooters, skilled passers, and solid ball-handlers. Currently, the Knicks are projected to have the 11th pick in the draft with a 9.4 percent chance of moving up into the top four. As a result, the front office will have to think about trading up in the draft to select top talent.
My gut tells me that Leon Rose will continue to run a slow and steady process in building this team, as he indicated in his letter to season-ticket holders. That being said, a 37-win disappointing season might change things, and the Knicks have the flexibility to make a big move if they deem it necessary.
3. Nikola Jovic β Forward, KK Mega Bemax, Serbia
Nikola Jovic is an 18-year-old, six-foot-ten, 209-pound power forward with a seven-foot-two wingspan. I wrote about Jovic back in November as a player Knicks fans should know as the draft season heats up. In that preview, I highlighted his outside shooting as a swing skill that could make Jovic one of the most sought-after prospects.
Here is what I wrote about Nikola’s shooting then: “Jovicβs shooting is clearly inconsistent and will be a huge swing skill for him going forward. He played in four different leagues during the 2021 season, and shot about 26 percent from three-point range. Furthermore, early returns from a young 2021-2022 season have not been great. In his first six games, Jovic is averaging under 10 points per game and shooting 28 percent from three, 37 percent overall, from the field.”
While Jovic’s numbers improved, questions remain regarding the young forward’s ability to play in the NBA. Per RealGM stats, Jovic finished his season with an average of 11.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. In addition, Jovic shot 41.1 percent from the field and 33.1 percent from the three-point line. The Serbian also shot 74.2 percent from the free-throw line. Looking at those numbers, fans who just watched an inefficient shooting season from Julius Randle might have PTSD.
NBA ready skill: Despite Jovic’s inconsistent shooting, plays like this (shown below) makes him tough to pass up. He possesses an elite feel for the game at such a young age. On day one in the NBA, you will have a six-foot-ten forward who is a threat in catch and shoot situations, can push the ball in transition and create for others, with massive upside.
Randle led the Knicks in total assists this past season. But even he would have to admit that Jovic’s vision has the potential to open the court and make the game easier for his teammates in a way that he couldn’t do this past season. Furthermore, Jovic also demonstrates an ability to make difficult shots off drives to the rim. He’s crafty and knows how to use his body to create space amongst defenders in the paint.
On the flip side, Jovic’s defense and slight build are roadblocks that will make it difficult for coaches to trust him with consistent minutes. Jovic will get beat when switched on to guards on the perimeter. He will also struggle with navigating screens and does not possess the hip flexibility or lateral quickness to be a good on-ball defender yet. However, this shouldn’t be a long-term issue, as Jovic will put on more weight through the NBA’s strength and conditioning programs. Besides lacking efficiency and strength, I see Jovic loving his jumper more than he should (but at least Jovic looks confident and decisive posting up against players that are smaller than him).
Fit with the Knicks: Not a great fit with the Knicks. With the current roster construction, there’s a bit of a logjam at the power forward position, with Julius Randle and Obi Toppin getting most of the minutes. While there’s no shortage of people who want the Knicks to trade Randle and start Obi, I bet that both players will be on the roster starting next season. Even if the Knicks traded Randle, I would prefer the Knicks to find a defensive-minded or rim-protecting forward to compensate for Toppin’s weaknesses.
2. Jabari Smith – Forward, Auburn
Jabari Smith is an 18-year-old, six-foot-ten, 220-pound freshman forward with a seven-foot wingspan. This past season, Smith played for the Auburn Tigers and is widely considered a top-four pick. He averaged 16.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game. In addition, he shot 42.9 percent from the floor, an impressive 42.0 percent from three, and 79.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Georgia-native also finished the season as a consensus All-American, SEC rookie of the year, and received All-SEC honors while posting a box-plus-minus (11.1) which ranked 10th in the nation. He also had one of the most memorable highlights from this year’s NCCA tournament.
Smith also registered 252 rebounds, 35 blocks, and a 57 true shooting percentage his freshman year. But let’s compare his numbers to other forwards and wings in his draft class to get an idea of where he stands. Paolo Banchero totaled more rebounds (304) and blocks (36); granted, Paolo’s true shooting percentage (55 percent) was slightly lower. On top of that, Keegan Murray (totaled 303 rebounds, 68 blocks, 63.8 true shooting percentage) outshined Smith in all of those categories.
When evaluating most top prospects, it’s often the intangibles that tend to stick out and push one player above another. The Athletic’s Brian Hamilton wrote a fantastic feature detailing Jabari’s 6:30 am high school workouts with his dad, where the two would work on conditioning and shooting drills. Hamilton also wrote about Smith’s tendency to participate in activities and exercises with players that had an edge on him. That was a quality that impressed the coaching staff at Auburn. Hamilton also noted that, typically, five-star recruits hide their deficiencies and don’t like to show weakness. Not Smith.
NBA ready skill: Smith shot 42 percent on 188 threes during his freshman season, averaging 5.5 threes per game. Smith hit a better percentage from the three-point line on a higher volume than Paolo Banchero and Keegan Murray.
Now, projecting shooting efficiency at the pro level can be very difficult. Furthermore, a dramatic increase in three-point shooting percentage in one college season can be viewed as an outlier rather than an indicator of what’s to come. Yet, with Smith, this is not the case.
Per maxpreps.com, Smith shot 38 percent on 205 three-point attempts during his junior year and 41percent on 165 three-point attempts during his senior year of high school. Combine that with his first year at Auburn, and Smith projects to be one of the most reliable long-range shooters from this draft class.
On the flip side, Smith has to improve getting to the line more often for a six-foot-ten player. He took 164 free throws during his first year, which was lower than Tari Eason (188), Banchero (188), and Murray (190). Additionally, per Hoops Math, only 15.2 percent of Smith’s shots came at the rim, and when you watch the film, his drives to the rim generally follow a straight line.
Fit with the Knicks: Despite just citing the logjam at the power forward position as a reason for not drafting Nikola Jovic, please believe that I would throw all of that out the window for the chance to bring Jabari Smith to New York. Smith’s height, length, and shooting ability are tantalizing enough before you remember that he is only 18 years old. Smith is the prototypical NBA forward with massive upside, given his frame and skill set. Even if it takes Smith two-three seasons to have a significant impact on the Knicks, his value as a floor-spacer helps the team on day one.
1. Paolo Banchero – Forward, Duke
Paolo Banchero is a 19-year-old, six-foot-ten, 250-pound forward with a seven-foot wingspan. Banchero played his freshman year for the Duke Blue Devils and finished his season in the Final Four of this year’s NCAA tournament. Banchero, also a consensus top-four pick, averaged 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. The Washington native also shot 47.8 percent from the floor, 33.8 percent from the three, and 72.9 percent from the free-throw line. Like Jabari Smith, Banchero was a consensus All-American, ACC rookie of the year, and received All-ACC honors.
NBA ready skill: Shot creation. Banchero has an effortless, smooth tempo to his offensive game. And his ability to dribble and pull up in traffic is in a class of its own, maybe only matched by Johnny Davis. In addition, Banchero’s footwork features healthy doses of deceptive jab steps and has been compared to Carmelo Anthony. The problem is that the efficiency is not there yet.
Banchero shot 38.3 percent on mid-range pull-ups. But with the way NBA defenses are forcing players to take those types of shots, he will have to improve in that area. Additionally, Banchero’s effective field goal percentage (52 percent) was lower than both Keegan Murray (61.4 percent) and Tari Eason (55.9 percent).
There’s just no better combination of shot creation, handle, and passing in the draft at Paolo’s size. As a result, it should be no surprise that Banchero takes 40.2 percent of his shots at the rim and converts 64.6 percent of them (Paolo’s spin move in the lane is a thing of beauty).
Compared with other players in his draft class, Banchero gets to the line at a decent clip, taking 4.8 free throws a game, totaling 188 free throws during his first year. Paolo is not a transcendent athlete but can finish through contact and over defenders with his height and length. Early in the season, as I watched Banchero, it was apparent that he was “NBA ready.” I remember him bullying Chet Holmgren in the post back in November and feeling like he’ll have the most immediate impact of any of the top-four picks in this draft.
While Banchero doesn’t boast the best assist to turnover ratio, his playmaking is still impressive. As Hoop Intellect’s Keandre states in his scouting report, Banchero is more than adept at executing touch lobs, wrap-around, and drop-off passes to bigs in the paint (he had great chemistry with Mark Williams this past season). Banchero also totaled more assists (124) than Murray, Eason, and Jabari Smith.
Fit with the Knicks: Paolo Banchero fits on every NBA roster. But, even if you have a perennial All-Star at his position on the roster, Banchero’s trade value alone makes him a must draft player. The freshman phenom dropped 20+ points in 10 of 31 regular-season games. He also got double-doubles (points and rebounds) in 12 of 39 games — this includes a 20 point and 10 rebound performance in a loss to UNC during his final game of the year. Banchero, along with Jaden Ivey, is one of my favorite players in this draft. If I had to bet money, I would be more than confident that Banchero will have one of the best NBA careers from this draft class.
Honorable Mention: Ohio St.’s E.J. Liddell and Purdue’s Trevion Williams are sleepers in this year’s draft. Liddell shot over 37% from three and grabbed over 250 rebounds during his junior year. He’s a strong defender and will most likely be drafted in the middle to the late first round. Williams is by far the best passing big man in this draft. Purdue’s heart and soul has all the intangibles needed to be one of the steals of the draft.
Stay tuned to KnicksFanTV.com for the latest Knicks news, rumors, and recaps throughout the 2021-22 NBA season. And in case you missed it, check out CP and Alex Trataros discussing NBA Playoffs, Jalen Brunson, and RJ Barrett’s interview.
